Week 11 Game Analysis
I apologize to anyone who was waiting for this week’s game analysis–I had a week filled with college work. But enough about me, on to the games:
Dolphins @ Eagles
Last Week: Dolphins lost to Bills 13-10; Eagles beat Redskins 33-25
Game Notes: Eagles did just what I was afraid of last week…they continued their up-and-down play to win against Washington (and I didn’t pick them). Dolphins: Running back Jesse Chatman had 27 carries for 124 yards last week. The Dolphins are making a quarterback change to rookie John Beck, which likely means Chatman will get a ton of carries against Philly. Their run defense ranks 12th in the league and they have allowed only two 100-yard rushers this year. The Dolphins have five losses by three points this season. Miami’s Ted Ginn, Jr. is fourth in the league in kick-return yards.
Key Injuries: Dolphins: DE Matt Roth (out); DE Jason Taylor (probable); MLB Zach Thomas (out); NT Keith Traylor (probable). Eagles: WR Kevin Curtis (probable); DT Mike Patterson (probable); RB Brian Westbrook (questionable).
Edge: The Eagles inconsistent play is really making me think about this one. I’m going with the Dolphins. But they’ll need a big day from Chatman, a few plays in the passing game and some great special teams. Plus I think the Eagles are going to be flat.
Buccaneers @ Falcons
Last Week: Buccaneers had a bye; Falcons beat Panthers 20-13
Game Notes: The Buccaneers have had an extra week to prepare. Traditionally, Gruden-coached teams fare pretty well coming off a bye. But the last two seasons, the Buccaneers are 0-2 following a bye-week—prior to that, Gruden’s record was 6-1. Falcons: the team is looking for its third consecutive win. Head coach Bobby Petrino hasn’t yet named a starting quarterback between Harrington and Leftwich. Running back Warrick Dunn has only recorded one 100-yard game this season (week 9). The Buccaneers rank 18th in the league in rushing yards allowed and have allowed only three 100-yard rushers this season.
Key Injuries: Falcons: WR Joe Horn (doubtful); QB Byron Leftwich (probable); Bucs: WR Michael Clayton (questionable); RB Earnest Graham (questionable); WR Ike Hilliard (probable); DE Greg Spires (out); T Jeremy Trueblood (questionable).
Edge: Buccaneers
Browns @ Ravens
Last Week: Browns lost to Steelers 31-28; Ravens lost to Bengals 21-7
Game Notes: Cleveland won the first meeting 27-13 (week 4). Kyle Boller is starting at quarterback with Steve McNair (shoulder) out. The move certainly can’t hurt—saying the Ravens offense has been lackluster the last two weeks would be a compliment. They’ve managed only 14 points combined the last two weeks. Conversely, the Browns have scored 61 combined points the last two games. The key for the Ravens here is to get Willis McGahee going early. But with the Browns high-powered offense, they might not be able to run as much as they’d like.
Key Injuries: Ravens: TE Todd Heap (questionable); CB Chris McAlister (questionable); QB Steve McNair (out). Browns: OLB Willie McGinest (probable); CB Leigh Bodden (probable); G Seth McKinney (IR); OLB Antwan Peek (probable); DE Shaun Smith (questionable); FB Lawrence Vickers (probable).
Edge: Browns
Chargers @ Jaguars
Last Week: Chargers beat Colts 23-21; Jags beat Titans 28-13
Game Notes: Jags running game helped them beat Tennessee last week: MJ Drew had 101 yards and Fred Taylor added 45. Quarterback David Gerrard is expected back this week, but they will likely continue to rely on the run. The key here is for Gerrard to take care of the ball. The Chargers are coming off an upset win against the Indianapolis Colts. The Chargers defense picked off Peyton Manning six times, a personal worst for Manning. KR/PR Darren Sproles took back two kicks for touchdowns, one punt and one kickoff. San Diego’s offense played the smallest part in the win. Phillip Rivers went 13-of-24 for a mere 104 yards with two interceptions. Tomlinson totaled only 76 yards.
Key Injuries: Jaguars: WR Ernest Wilford (probable); DL Marcus Stroud (suspension). Chargers: DE Luis Castillo (out); TE Antonio Gates (probable); OLB Shawne Merriman (probable); C Nick Hardwick (out).
Edge: Jaguars
Saints @ Texans
Last Week: Saints lost to Rams 37-29; Texans had a bye
Game Notes: Saints were outplayed last week until the fourth quarter. But it was too little too late. Bush has yet to record a 100-yard game this year, but the Texans rank 24thagainst the run. Drew Brees and the Saints passing game has been the most impressive part of their team this year. They could have a big game against the Texans defense. Texans: quarterback Matt Schaub is set to return this week. Wide receiver Andre Johnson is also healthy and back on the field.
Key Injuries: Texans: DT Amobi Okoye (probable); K Kris Brown (probable); CB Jamar Fletcher (out); RB Ahman Green (out). Saints: T Jammal Brown (doubtfull); DE Charles Grant (questionable); DT Brian Young (out).
Edge: Texans
Chiefs @ Colts
Last Week: Chiefs lost to Broncos 27-11; Colts lost to Chargers 23-21
Game Notes: The Colts blew their chances of walking away with a win last week when Adam Vinatieri missed a 29-yard field goal. They’ll likely be ready for a bounce-back win this week. Quarterback Brodie Croyle has been named the Chiefs starter. It will be his first career start. Chiefs passing game didn’t get going AT ALL last week without Larry Johnson. And they’ll be without Johnson again this week.
Key Injuries: Colts: DE Dwight Freeney (IR); WR Anthony Gonzalez (questionable); WR Marvin Harrison (questionable); SS Bob Sanders (questionable). Chiefs: RB Larry Johnson (out); T Damion McIntosh (probable); T Will Svitek (out).
Edge: Colts
Giants @ Lions
Last Week: Gaints lost to Cowboys 31-20; Lions lost to Cardinals 31-21
Game Notes: Both teams are coming off a week 10 loss. Mistakes killed the Giants last week in a loss to the Cowboys. The Lions lack of a running game last week (-18) yards forced the team to rely too much on the pass. The Giants lead the league with 32 sacks this season. The Lions defense leads the league with 28 takeaways. On paper, this game is so evenly matched up it’s driving me crazy…except for one category: the run game. Brandon Jacobs could be the difference in an otherwise even contest.
Key Injuries: Lions: WR Calvin Johnson (probable); QB John Kitna (probable); Giants: WR Plaxico Burress (questionable); MLB Antonio Pierce (questionable); WR Steve Smith (out); RB Derrick Ward (out).
Edge: Giants
Panthers @ Packers
Last Week: Panthers lost to Falcons 20-13; Packers beat Vikings 34-0
Game Notes: QB Byron Leftwich is expected to start. Packers are, um, good. Favre lit it up in the passing game last week and RB Grant had over 100 yards for the second time this year. Panthers: Testaverde is expected to start at QB in place of a healthy David Carr. The Panthers are on a three-game losing streak.
Key Injuries: Panthers: RB DeShaun Foster (probable); WR Steve Smith (questionable). Packers: CB Charles Woodson (probable); WR Koren Robinson (probable); TE Bubba Franks (out); FS Nick Collins (out).
Edge: Packers
Raiders @ Vikings
Last Week: Raiders lost to Bears 17-6; Vikings lost to Packers 34-0
Game Notes: Tarvaris Jackson set to come back as starter for Minnesota. Adrian Peterson is out with a partial tear of lateral collateral ligament in right knee. But his backup, Chester Taylor, is averaging five yards a carry. And that’s just about what the Raiders give up per rush. Minnesota’s also good against the run, ranking second in the league. Oakland: quarterback Daunte Culpepper will make a return to the starting lineup against his former team. The last time Culpepper faced a former team, he had his best game of the year. In a week four win over Miami, Culpepper totaled five touchdowns with two passing TDs and three rushing. Will Minnesota get Culpepper fired up?
Key Injuries: Vikings: SS Eric Frampton (questionable); RB Adrian Peterson (out); DE Brian Robinson (probable); CB Antoine Winfield (probable). Raiders: CB Nnamdi Asomugha (questionable); QB Josh McCown (doubtful); WR Jerry Porter; CB Fabian Washington (questionable); OLB Sam Williams (questionable); C Jake Grove (doubtful).
Edge: Vikings
Cardinals @ Bengals
Last Week: Cardinals beat Lions 31-21; Bengals beat Ravens 21-7
Game Notes: Both teams are coming off a week 10 win. The Bengals special teams came through last week. Cincinnati scored all 21 of its points from field goals. Luckily for the Bengals, they were playing the Ravens last week…so their pathetic defense didn’t look so bad. Cardinals QB Kurt Warner shouldn’t have much trouble against the Bengals secondary. The Bengals offense
Key Injuries: Bengals: WR Chad Johnson (probable); CB Deltha O’Neal (probable). Cardinals: FS Aaron Francisco (questionable); MLB Gerald Hayes (probable); QB Kurt Warner (probable); SS Adrian Wilson (questionable).
Edge: Cardinals
Steelers @ Jets
Last Week: Steelers beat Browns 31-28; Jets had a bye
Game Notes: Steelers came back in win over Cleveland last week (they are undefeated at home). Steelers have 2nd ranked rushing offense. The Jets have the 32ndranked in the league in rushing yards allowed. I’m not Adam Schefter but I don’t think that’s a good combination for New York. The Jets do, however, have a great kick-return team. KR Leon Washington has three kickoff returns for touchdowns this year (which leads the league). The Steelers kick coverage unit ranks 27thin the league. If the Steelers can win the special teams battle they should have no problem leaving New York with a victory.
Key Injuries: Jets: TE Chris Baker (probable); T Anthony Clement (probable). Steelers: FB Dan Kreider (probable); RB Willie Parker (probable); OLB LaMarr Woodley (out).
Edge: Steelers
Bears @ Seahawks
Last Week: Bears beat Raiders 17-6; Seahawks beat 49ers 24-0
Game Notes: Seahawks: the 49ers didn’t even challenge the ‘hawks last week, getting shut out on the road. Hasselbeck put up 278 yards passing with two touchdowns and one interception. Running back Maurice Morris filled in nicely for Shaun Alexander, putting up 87 yards on 28 carries. He should at least match that against the Bears—they rank 26thin the league in rushing yards allowed. Bears: Rex Grossman has the starting QB job back. An 80-yard touchdown pass to Bernard Berrian gave the Bears a 10-6 lead and eventual win last week. Running back Cedric Benson is averaging only 3.2 yards per carry. The Bears defense should challenge Hasselbeck in coverage and with pressure. The Seahawks are ranked 10th in rushing yards allowed, but the Bears shouldn’t worry because they don’t’ have a running game. Seattle ranks 20th against the pass but has ONLY GIVEN UP FIVE PASSING TOUCHDOWNS (that’s the fewest in the league). Their defense has also grabbed nine interceptions.
Key Injuries: Bears: DT Tommie Harris (questionable). Seahawks: RB Shaun Alexander (probable); DT Rocky Bernard (probable); WR Deion Branch (questionable); OLB Will Herring (out).
Edge: Seahawks
Rams @ 49ers
Last Week: Rams beat Saints 37-29; 49ers lost to Seahawks 24-0
Game Notes: The Rams picked up their first win of the season last week but still have a beaten up offensive line. Running back Steven Jackson is healthy and back for his second week in a row. 49ers: Frank Gore is probable and will face a Rams defense ranked 22nd against the run. San Francisco won the first meeting 17-16.
Key Injuries: 49ers: NT Aubrayno Franklin (out); RB Frank Gore (probable); WR Ashley Lelie (out); QB Alex Smith (probable). Rams: C Richie Incognito (IR); WR Isaac Bruce (probable); WR Dante Hall (probable); TE Aaron Wlaker (IR).
Edge: Rams. The 49ers would win if they commit to the run with Gore. But they’ve shown all season that they don’t want to do that.
Redskins @ Cowboys
Last Week: Redskins lost to Eagles 33-25; Cowboys beat Giants 31-20
Game Notes: The Redskins have won only once in their last 10 trips to Dallas. Portis had 137 rushing yards last week for Washington, but it was in a losing effort. A Redskin receiver hauled in a touchdown pass for the first time all season last week against the Eagles. The Cowboys pass defense ranks 17th in the league.
Key Injuries: Cowboys: G Leonard Davis (questionable); WR Terry Glenn (out); CB Anthony Henry (probable). Redskins: G Pete Kendall (probable); WR Santana Moss (probable); CB Fred Smoot (probable); FS Sean Taylor (out); WR James Thrash (out); OLB Marcus Washington (probable); WR Brandon Lloyd (IR).
Edge: Cowboys
Patriots @ Bills
Last Week: Patriots had a bye; Bills beat Dolphins 13-10
Game Notes: I have a “word problem” for you: If the Patriots are undefeated in the regular season through week 9 with no bye week, how will they fare in week 11 after two weeks to prepare? You get the idea. The Bills offense got off to a s…l…o…w start last week against the Dolphins but pulled it out in the end. They had better not do the same thing Sunday or it will be a long day.
Key Injuries: Bills: RB Marshawn Lynch (doubtful); DE Aaron Shobel (probable). Patriots: ILB Eric Alexander (questionable); QB Tom Brady (probable); OLB Mike Vrabel (questionable); WR Wes Welker (questionable). FS Eugene Wilson (questionable).
Edge: Patriots
Titans @ Broncos
Last Week: Titans lost to Jags 28-13; Broncos beat Chiefs 27-11
Game Notes: Lendale White and the Titans ground shouldn’t have any excuses this week as they face the Broncos 31stranked run defense (over 150 yards allowed per game). The Titans should lean heavily on the run and look for a few big plays from Vince Young. Broncos: Selvin Young filled in nicely last week for running back Travis Henry, posting 109 yards and one score on 20 carries. The Titans run defense has been playing well this season (with the exception of last week against Jacksonville). If their defense is back on track they should be able to control this game.
Key Injuries: Broncos: K Jason Elam (probable); RB Travis Henry (questionable); FS John Lynch (probable); WR Javon Walker (out). Titans: CB Nicholas Harper (questionable); DT Albert Haynesworth (questionable).
Edge: Titans
